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Outpost Β· four beats

The Watch

Four things, watched continuously, explained in our own words, and never handed to you as a verdict.

In our words
Every explanation here is written by Outpost, not copied from a press release or a summary somebody else wrote with a purpose. Where we quote, we mark it and cite it.
In totality
An item is not summarised down to its headline. What it says, what it does mechanically, who it touches, what it costs, what is argued about it, and what nobody knows yet β€” all six, or it does not ship.
Never a verdict
We do not tell you whether a law is good, whether a payment was deserved, or whether a trade was improper. We show you the record and what is contested about it. The conclusion is yours and we are not entitled to it.

What you want to hear about

Nobody consented to being watched back. A person who wants the four beats will turn them on in about six seconds; a person who does not should never have to find the switch to make it stop.

How often

Delivery is not built yet. These switches are real and they are remembered on this device, but nothing is sent anywhere β€” there is no mail, no push, and no account required to set them. When delivery is wired, what you chose here is what it uses. Loading your choices…

Two kinds of β€œwhat this means”

Every implication carries one of these two labels. An unlabelled implication fails the build, because an unlabelled forecast reads as a fact.

Written in

A consequence the text itself creates. The statute says a thing happens on a date, or an award moves a stated sum to a named recipient. You can point at the line.

The provision takes effect on the first day of the fiscal year beginning after enactment β€” that is in the text, and the date is arithmetic.

Projected by

Somebody's forecast of what will follow. Always somebody's β€” never the air's, and never ours.

The Congressional Budget Office estimated a cost over the ten-year window. That is CBO's projection, published under its name, and it is a projection.

The four beats

Connector built, not scheduled

Who is paid to ask for what

Somebody is being paid to change a specific law. Who, for whom, about what, and for how much?

The law that makes this public

The Lobbying Disclosure Act of 1995, as amended in 2007

2 U.S.C. Β§ 1601 et seq.; Honest Leadership and Open Government Act of 2007, Pub. L. 110-81

A registered lobbyist files a quarterly report naming the client, the issues, the chambers and agencies contacted, and the income or expenses for the quarter. Certain political contributions are reported separately twice a year.

What it can tell you

  • Which organisation hired which firm, and what they were paid that quarter
  • Which specific bill numbers and issue areas were named in the filing
  • Which chamber and which federal agencies were contacted
  • Which individual lobbyists worked the account, and whether they previously held a covered federal position

What it cannot

  • What was actually said in any meeting β€” the filing names the subject, never the argument
  • Whether the lobbying worked. Nothing in the record connects a filing to an outcome, and a tracker that implies otherwise is inventing causation.
  • Anything about activity that falls under the registration thresholds, which is a large and unmeasured share of the total

The hard part: The reported figure is a floor and not a total. The Act only captures activity above its registration thresholds, and work that stops short of a direct lobbying contact β€” strategy, coalition-building, research produced for someone else to deliver β€” frequently is not reportable at all. A quarterly number that looks small can sit on top of a far larger effort that the statute never asked about.

New data: Quarterly, with filing deadlines twenty days after each quarter ends

Where it comes from

Go to /lobbying β†’

Connector built, not scheduled

What actually became law

A bill passed. What does it actually do, to whom, starting when, and what is argued about it?

The law that makes this public

The Presentment Clause, and the statutes requiring publication

U.S. Const. art. I, Β§ 7, cl. 2; 1 U.S.C. Β§ 112 (Statutes at Large); 44 U.S.C. ch. 15

A measure passed by both chambers and presented to the President becomes law on signature, on a veto override by two thirds of each chamber, or by lapse. Every enacted law is assigned a public law number and published in full.

What it can tell you

  • The full enacted text, the public law number, and the date it took effect
  • Every recorded vote, by member, in both chambers
  • Which committee handled it and what changed between introduction and enactment
  • The Congressional Budget Office cost estimate, where one was produced

What it cannot

  • How it will actually work. Most statutes delegate the operative details to an agency, and those details arrive later as rules.
  • What it will cost in reality β€” a CBO estimate is a projection, published as one, and is not an outcome
  • Whether it was a good idea. That is a policy judgement and it is not ours to publish.

The hard part: Enactment is the middle of the story, not the end. The provision that changes your life is usually written by an agency months later, in a rule with a public comment window that almost nobody uses. A tracker that stops at 'signed into law' hands the reader the least consequential half.

New data: Continuous while Congress is in session

Where it comes from

Go to /bills β†’

Connector built, not scheduled

Public money to private companies

Public money went to a company. Which company, how much, from which agency, under what programme, and who is auditing it?

The law that makes this public

The federal spending transparency statutes

Federal Funding Accountability and Transparency Act of 2006, Pub. L. 109-282; DATA Act of 2014, Pub. L. 113-101; Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (TARP); Dodd-Frank Act of 2010, Β§ 1103 (Federal Reserve facility disclosure)

Federal awards β€” contracts, grants, loans, and direct payments β€” are published at the award level with recipient, amount, agency, and date. Emergency programmes have carried their own dedicated oversight bodies and reporting duties.

What it can tell you

  • Award-level records: who received it, how much, from which agency, under which programme, on what date
  • Which inspector general or oversight body is responsible, and what they have already published
  • What the Government Accountability Office found when it audited the programme
  • For emergency facilities, the terms disclosed under the statute that created them

What it cannot

  • Tax expenditures. A deduction, credit, or exclusion moves enormous sums and appears in no award database at all.
  • The full exposure of a loan guarantee, which is a contingent liability rather than an outlay
  • Whether any of it was deserved, wise, or well-spent

The hard part: The biggest transfers are frequently not awards. Tax provisions, loan guarantees, and central bank facilities are three separate systems with three separate disclosure regimes, and none of them shows up in an award search. Anyone who searches usaspending.gov for a company name and reports the total as what that company received has systematically understated it β€” and will not know by how much.

New data: Continuous, with award data typically appearing within weeks

Where it comes from

Go to /tax-dollar β†’

Connector built, not scheduled

Trades and timing

A member of Congress traded a stock. What, when, in what bracket, was the filing on time, and does the committee they sit on touch that industry?

Why this is not called β€œinsider trading”

Insider trading is a crime. Attaching it to a named living person who filed a lawful disclosure imputes criminal conduct to them, which is the classic shape of defamation per se, and it would be aimed at precisely the people best resourced to sue. It is also inaccurate on its face: a periodic transaction report is evidence that somebody disclosed a trade.

What we publish: The disclosure record itself. The asset, the date, the reported bracket, whether the statutory deadline was met, and the member's committee assignments alongside it.

Why that is the stronger version: A verdict we have no standing to render is one a reader can wave away. A filing date sitting next to a committee assignment is not waveable, and the reader reaches their own conclusion β€” which is the conclusion that actually persuades them.

The law that makes this public

The STOCK Act, on top of the Ethics in Government Act

Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge Act of 2012, Pub. L. 112-105; Ethics in Government Act of 1978, Pub. L. 95-521

A covered official files a periodic transaction report for a covered securities transaction no later than thirty days after being notified of it, and in no event later than forty-five days after the transaction. Annual financial disclosures are filed and published separately.

What it can tell you

  • That a transaction was disclosed: the asset, the type, and the transaction date
  • The reported value bracket, which is a range rather than a figure
  • Whether the filing met the statutory deadline, which is arithmetic on two published dates
  • Which committees and subcommittees the filer sits on, from the public roster

What it cannot

  • Whether anyone traded on material non-public information. That is a criminal question with elements only a prosecution can establish, and nothing in a disclosure form speaks to it.
  • The actual amount. Values are reported in wide brackets and the true figure sits somewhere inside one.
  • Who decided. Filings cover a spouse's and dependent children's holdings, and many are executed by a manager under an arrangement the filer does not direct.

The hard part: A late filing is a documented fact and it carries a statutory late-filing fee. It is not evidence of anything beyond itself, and reporting it as though it were is the exact move that turns a transparency record into an accusation. The discipline that makes this beat publishable is the same one that makes it credible: we state the record, we place it next to the committee assignment, and we stop.

New data: Rolling, as periodic transaction reports are filed and published

Where it comes from

Go to /politicians β†’

The rules this page holds itself to

  • Every beat is off until a person turns it on, individually
  • No beat may be turned on for someone as a side effect of anything else
  • A digest carries only beats that are on, and is not sent at all when there is nothing in them
  • Turning everything off removes the delivery entirely rather than reducing it
  • No engagement-based reordering, ever. A digest is chronological, because the alternative is an algorithm deciding what a citizen should care about.

Every mechanism above is explained in the Citizen’s Guide, which carries the statute behind each one and the place where it fails.